Updated Nov 5, 2026, 11:50 UKPrices to Nov 4, 2026Opendoor tracker as of Oct 31, 2026, refreshed weekly

Opendoor,
scored.
Every weekday.

An independent scorecard that grades Opendoor 0–10 on nine pillars, rebuilt every weekday from SEC filings, the share price, housing data from its markets and Opendoor's own public tracker.

Get the weekly email, free →

Overall score weighted across nine pillars

5.38/ 10C↘ -0.02vs Nov 4, 2026since Nov 4, 2026

Mixed: the turnaround is plausible but unproven.

Each home sale earns a healthy margin and sales are growing again, but the company still loses money overall, it's missing its own targets and the share count keeps growing.

↘ Down 0.02 since Nov 4, 2026: mainly Valuation 8.4 to 7.9 (price / book 2.29x to 2.61x); then Momentum 0.0 to 0.1 (place in the 52-week range 0.0% to 3.1%).

Data status

Balance sheet (10-Q)Q2 2026Over a quarter old
Earnings releaseQ2 2026Over a quarter old
Share table (10-Q)Q2 2026Over a quarter old
Opendoor's trackerOct 31, 2026Current
Share priceNov 4, 2026Current
Mortgage rateweek of Oct 29, 2026Current
Housing dataOct 2026Current

Every source and its age

Share price

$1.98

close Nov 4, 2026

Market cap

$1.83bn

pro forma shares

Q3 homes sold

2,728

vs 2,934 expected

30-yr mortgage rate

7.24%

week of Oct 29, 2026

Five biggest single moves

Overall score if each reached full marks, alone. B starts at 6.50, 1.12 away How the score moves

GAAP net marginProfitability

-20.9%0.0 pts

Full marks at +2.0%

+0.50

Home-backed debt vs homesBalance sheet

95.5%2.2 pts

Full marks at 80.0%

+0.39

Stock pay / revenueDilution

13.5%0.0 pts

Full marks at 1.0%

+0.33

Contracts vs projectionExecution

-26.7%2.7 pts

Full marks at +10.0%

+0.27

Contracts vs the quarter beforeGrowth

+0.5%5.1 pts

Full marks at +20.0%

+0.25

What updates with Q3 2026 results

Tonight, about 21:00 UK

18 of 31 scored metrics switch from Q2 2026 figures or this page's estimate to Q3 2026 reported.

11Earnings releasefirst evening run after it

Revenue YoYGrowth+12.2%EstimateQ3 2026
Contribution marginUnit economics+5.8%Q2 2026Q3 2026
Margin vs the quarter beforeUnit economics+1.40ppQ2 2026Q3 2026
Gross marginUnit economics+9.7%Q2 2026Q3 2026
Homes listed 120+ daysUnit economics9.0%Q2 2026Q3 2026
Days of inventoryUnit economics170 daysQ2 2026Q3 2026
GAAP net marginProfitability-20.9%Q2 2026Q3 2026
Adj. EBITDA marginProfitability-0.5%Q2 2026Q3 2026
Adj. net income marginProfitability-3.4%Q2 2026Q3 2026
Contracts that fell throughExecution25.3%Q2 2026Q3 2026
Price / salesValuation0.56xQ2 2026Q3 2026

710-Qoften a few days later

Cash vs notesBalance sheet1.69xQ2 2026Q3 2026
Home-backed debt vs homesBalance sheet95.5%Q2 2026Q3 2026
Cash runwayBalance sheet40.0 qtrsQ2 2026Q3 2026
Share count vs a year agoDilution+20.0%Q2 2026Q3 2026
Stock pay / revenueDilution13.5%Q2 2026Q3 2026
Potential new shares liveDilution6.4%Q2 2026Q3 2026
Price / bookValuation2.61xQ2 2026Q3 2026

Not affected: Momentum, Housing market, plus the tracker metrics, which update weekly.

Score by pillar

Each pillar is the average of its metrics, 0–10

Growth15%

7.20.0

Unit economics15%

7.30.0

Profitability15%

3.90.0

Execution15%

4.00.0

Balance sheet15%

6.70.0

Dilution10%

3.80.0

Valuation5%

7.9−0.5

Momentum5%

0.1+0.1

Housing market5%

4.70.0

How the 5.38 adds up (pillar score x weight): Growth 1.08 + Unit economics 1.10 + Profitability 0.59 + Execution 0.60 + Balance sheet 1.00 + Dilution 0.38 + Valuation 0.40 + Momentum 0.00 + Housing market 0.23.

Context vs Opendoor's own history

The latest reported quarter against Opendoor's own high and low over the quarters in the Quarterly results table. These are Opendoor's own past numbers, not peer comparisons, and are not scored.

Metric	Latest	Low	High	Where it sits
Contribution margin6 quarters, Q1 2025 to Q2 2026; higher is better	5.8%Q2 2026best of the period	1.0%Q4 2025	5.8%Q2 2026	lowhigh
Gross margin8 quarters, Q3 2024 to Q2 2026; higher is better	9.7%Q2 2026	7.2%Q3 2025	10.0%Q1 2026	lowhigh
Days of inventory8 quarters, Q3 2024 to Q2 2026; lower is better	170 daysQ2 2026	123 daysQ2 2025	198 daysQ4 2024	lowhigh
Homes listed 120+ days5 quarters, Q2 2025 to Q2 2026; lower is better	9%Q2 2026best of the period	9%Q2 2026	51%Q3 2025	lowhigh
Revenue, quarter8 quarters, Q3 2024 to Q2 2026; higher is better	$883MQ2 2026	$720MQ1 2026	$1,567MQ2 2025	lowhigh

Housing conditions already influence Unit economics and Execution; this is context only.

How fresh the data is

Every source, its date, and whether it is more than a quarter old

Source	Data to	Age	Updates
Balance sheet and cash flow (10-Q)	Q2 2026	128 days	quarterly	Over a quarter old
Earnings release (homes, margins, adj. figures)	Q2 2026	128 days	quarterly	Over a quarter old
Potential new shares (10-Q table)	Q2 2026	128 days	quarterly	Over a quarter old
Opendoor's tracker	Oct 31, 2026	5 days	weekly	Current
Share price	Nov 4, 2026	1 day	every weekday	Current
Mortgage rate	week of Oct 29, 2026	7 days	weekly	Current
Housing in Opendoor's markets	Oct 2026	35 days	monthly	Current

Quarterly figures are flagged once a newer quarter has ended but not yet been reported. Each metric below carries its own date. Next: Q3 2026 results, after the US close on Nov 5, 2026; the first weekday run after that picks them up.

What drives each score

All thresholds in one table Try your own weights

Growth

Is the business getting bigger right now?

7.2

15% weight

Revenue YoY, latest quarter (estimate until reported)Estimate: 2,728 homes x $376K a home. Homes +6.2% YoY; assumes revenue per home +5.6%. Opendoor guided at least +20%Q3 2026 estimate0 pts at -40.0%, 10 pts at +30.0%+12.2%7.5 pts

Quarter-to-date homes sold YoYQ4 to Oct 28, 2026: 858 homes vs 596 a year earlierquarter to date vs a year earlier, week by week (tracker)Tracker Oct 31, 20260 pts at -20.0%, 10 pts at +50.0%+44.0%9.1 pts

Acquisition contracts, last qtr vs priorTracker Oct 31, 20260 pts at -20.0%, 10 pts at +20.0%+0.5%5.1 pts

Unit economics

Does each home flip make money, and is stock fresh?

7.3

15% weight

Contribution marginQ1 2025 to Q2 2026, by quarterBy quarterQ2 2026, over a quarter old0 pts at +0.0%, 10 pts at +7.0%+5.8%8.3 pts

Contribution margin, latest qtr vs the one beforeQ1 2026 4.4%, Q2 2026 5.8%Q2 2026, over a quarter old0 pts at -1.50pp, 10 pts at +1.50pp+1.40pp9.7 pts

Gross marginQ2 2026, over a quarter old0 pts at +5.0%, 10 pts at +12.0%+9.7%6.8 pts

Homes listed 120+ days, share of inventoryWhole market: 27%Q2 2026, over a quarter old0 pts at 40.0%, 10 pts at 5.0%9.0%8.9 pts

Days of inventory (average inventory / cost of homes sold)About 2.1 turns a year; inventory grew 62% in the quarter, which lengthens thisQ1 2025 to Q2 2026, by quarterBy quarterQ2 2026, over a quarter old0 pts at 200 days, 10 pts at 90 days170 days2.7 pts

Profitability

Does the whole company make money?

3.9

15% weight

GAAP net margin, last 2 qtrsQ2 2026, over a quarter old0 pts at -20.0%, 10 pts at +2.0%-20.9%0.0 pts

Adj. EBITDA marginQ2 2026, over a quarter old0 pts at -5.0%, 10 pts at +3.0%-0.5%5.7 pts

Adj. net income margin (target: positive by end-2026)Q2 2026, over a quarter old0 pts at -10.0%, 10 pts at +1.0%-3.4%6.0 pts

Execution

Is management hitting its own targets?

4.0

15% weight

Last qtr homes sold vs mgmt expectationTracker Oct 31, 20260 pts at -15.0%, 10 pts at +5.0%-7.0%4.0 pts

Contracts, last 4 wks vs projection midpointrolling 4 weeks, last 13 weeksTracker Oct 31, 20260 pts at -40.0%, 10 pts at +10.0%-26.7%2.7 pts

Relative clearance vs MLS, 4-wk avgTracker Oct 31, 20260 pts at 0.90x, 10 pts at 1.30x1.11x5.4 pts

Signed purchase contracts that fell through, last qtr (est.)2,265 of 8,953 contracts (1,939 open at the start + 7,014 signed); Q1 2026 22%Open contracts at the start, plus contracts signed, less homes bought, less contracts still open at the end. How it's estimatedQ2 2026, over a quarter old0 pts at 35.0%, 10 pts at 10.0%25.3%3.9 pts

Balance sheet

Can it survive a bad housing year?

6.7

15% weight

Cash vs the company's own debt (convertible notes)daily, since Nov 4, 2026Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals, over a quarter old0 pts at 0.50x, 10 pts at 2.00x1.69x8.0 pts

Home-backed debt vs the value of homes heldCushion 4.5% if home prices fallQ2 2026, over a quarter old0 pts at 100.0%, 10 pts at 80.0%95.5%2.2 pts

Cash runway at current adj. net loss (home purchases are debt-funded, excluded)Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals, over a quarter old0 pts at 4.0 qtrs, 10 pts at 16.0 qtrs40.0 qtrs10.0 pts

Dilution

Is your slice of the company shrinking?

3.8

10% weight

Share count change YoYQ2 2026, adjusted for later deals, over a quarter old0 pts at +30.0%, 10 pts at +0.0%+20.0%3.3 pts

Stock comp / revenueQ2 2026, over a quarter old0 pts at 10.0%, 10 pts at 1.0%13.5%0.0 pts

Potential new shares live at today's priceOf 399M potential shares in allQ2 2026, adjusted for later deals, over a quarter old0 pts at 25.0%, 10 pts at 2.0%6.4%8.1 pts

Valuation

Are you overpaying for what exists today?

7.9

5% weight

Price / sales (TTM)daily, since Nov 4, 2026Price Nov 4, 2026, sales to Q2 2026, over a quarter old0 pts at 3.00x, 10 pts at 0.30x0.56x9.0 pts

Price / book (pro forma)daily, since Nov 4, 2026Price Nov 4, 2026, book at Q2 2026, over a quarter old0 pts at 6.00x, 10 pts at 1.00x2.61x6.8 pts

Momentum

What is the market saying?

0.1

5% weight

Share price, 1 yearClose Nov 4, 20260 pts at -70.0%, 10 pts at +30.0%-73.9%0.0 pts

Position in 52-week rangeClose Nov 4, 20260 pts at 0.0%, 10 pts at 100.0%3.1%0.3 pts

Price vs 200-day averageClose Nov 4, 20260 pts at -40.0%, 10 pts at +10.0%-52.2%0.0 pts

Short interest not scored
226.1M shares, 24.4% of shares outstanding (float not available), 6.3 days to cover; -2% since Sep 30, 2026.Settlement Oct 15, 2026; Nasdaq (FINRA short interest). Published twice a month, about a week after each settlement date.

Housing market

Is the market helping or hurting?

4.7

5% weight

30-year US mortgage rateWeek of Oct 29, 20260 pts at 8.00%, 10 pts at 5.00%7.24%2.5 pts

Mortgage rate change, last 13 weeksWeek of Oct 29, 20260 pts at +0.75pp, 10 pts at -0.75pp+0.58pp1.1 pts

Days on market vs a year ago, Opendoor's markets12 markets, Oct 2026Oct 20260 pts at +30.0%, 10 pts at -10.0%+0.9%7.3 pts

Price cuts per 100 listings vs a year ago, Opendoor's markets12 markets, Oct 2026Oct 20260 pts at +6.00pp, 10 pts at -3.00pp-3.12pp10.0 pts

Asking prices vs a year ago, Opendoor's markets12 markets, Oct 2026Oct 20260 pts at -5.0%, 10 pts at +4.0%-2.6%2.7 pts

Details

Debt, split by what backs it

Most of the debt is secured by the homes themselves

6.7

Balance sheet

Home-backed debt vs the homes it funds95.5%

Debt $1,762MCushion $83MHomes held $1,845M

Opendoor holds homes on its books at $1,845M against $1,762M of debt secured on them, so $83M (4.5%) of its own money is in them. That is the cushion before a fall in home prices reaches the lenders. Lenders can take the homes but, except in limited cases, cannot claim the company.

If home values fell	Homes worth	Vs the debt on them
Today	$1,845M	$83M to spare
Homes worth 5% less	$1,753M	$9M short
Homes worth 10% less	$1,660M	$102M short
Homes worth 20% less	$1,476M	$286M short

Book values: what Opendoor paid plus renovation, less write-downs. Selling costs would take a little more off what the homes fetch.

Cash vs the company's own debt1.7×

Cash

$1,200M

Convertible notes

$709M

The notes are unsecured, so they are the debt the company itself must repay or convert.

Homes and home-backed debt from the Jun 30, 2026 balance sheet (10-Q). Cash and notes are adjusted for: $135M of 2026 convertible notes repaid at maturity; $650M 0% convertible notes due 2030, $158M buyback of 45.3M shares, $52.5M capped call.

Dilution, line by line

Every potential new share, and how many are live at $1.98

6.4%

live today

Instrument	Potential	Live today
RSUs, options and employee share planCounted in full	32.2M	32.2M
CEO award 1$6.24 average	40.9M	0
CEO award 2$9 to $33 average, in 7 steps	40.9M	0
Other price-target awardsCounted in full (targets not itemised)	21.8M	21.8M
Warrants (Series K, A, Z)$9 / $13 / $17, expire Nov 20, 2026	99.6M	0
0% convertible notes due 2030$4.71 to convert, capped call to $6.98	138.0M	0
7% convertible notes due 2030$1.57 to convert	26.2M	5.4M
Total	399.5M	59.4M

Live dilution if the share price were…

Swipe for higher prices, tap the chart for figures

Live means it would become shares, or hand over their value, at that price. Awards with a price target count once the stock reaches it; warrants and convertibles count only the value above what they cost or repay. Shares outstanding: 925.8M. Source: 10-Q for the quarter ended Jun 30, 2026, table of anti-dilutive securities; contract terms from Opendoor's 8-Ks.

Housing in Opendoor's markets

How fast homes sell, and at what price, Oct 2026 vs a year earlier

4.7

Housing market

Market	Days on marketmedian	Days on market1-year change	Price cutsper 100 listings	Price cuts1-year change	Asking prices1-year change	Homes for sale1-year change
Phoenix	59	+0.9%	46	-4.1	-4.0%	+9.6%
Atlanta	61	+1.7%	35	-2.8	-0.7%	+5.6%
Dallas	64	+0.0%	41	-4.5	-1.2%	-1.7%
Houston	57	+0.9%	30	-1.7	-2.2%	+4.9%
Charlotte	65	+11.1%	45	-4.5	-4.1%	+13.2%
Raleigh	64	+6.7%	46	-2.4	-2.6%	+7.5%
Tampa	77	-2.5%	40	-2.4	-5.9%	-2.3%
Orlando	78	-3.1%	37	+0.1	-3.6%	+2.8%
Las Vegas	59	+2.6%	34	-4.4	-2.6%	+9.8%
Denver	60	-4.0%	44	-6.1	-5.0%	+9.2%
Nashville	63	+4.1%	34	-3.4	-1.3%	+11.9%
San Antonio	74	+0.7%	40	-2.3	-2.5%	+2.5%
Median of 12 markets	64	+0.9%	40	-3.1	-2.6%	+6.6%
United States	63	+0.8%	33	-2.0	-2.2%	+7.4%

Green helps Opendoor resell its homes faster and for more; red hurts. Price cuts are the month's price reductions per 100 active listings. Twelve of Opendoor's largest Sunbelt and Mountain markets, equally weighted; the median feeds the score. Source: Realtor.com monthly housing data.

Unit economics, quarter by quarter

Contribution margin and what sits behind it

Quarter	Contrib. margin	Change	Gross margin	Contrib. / home	Revenue / home	Days of inventory	120+ days	Selling costs / home	Holding costs / home	Write-downs / home
Q2 2026	5.8%	+1.4pp	9.7%	$21.9K	$378K	170	9%	$12.4K	$4.7K	$6.0K
Q1 2026	4.4%	+3.4pp	10.0%	$16.5K	$375K	143	10%	$12.0K	$6.2K	$4.7K
Q4 2025	1.0%	-1.2pp	7.7%	$3.7K	$372K	134	33%	$11.6K	$7.6K	$4.6K
Q3 2025	2.2%	-2.2pp	7.2%	$7.8K	$356K	140	51%	$10.9K	$6.2K	$5.8K
Q2 2025	4.4%	-0.3pp	8.2%	$16.0K	$365K	123	36%	$10.0K	$5.4K	$4.9K
Q1 2025	4.7%	–	8.6%	$18.4K	$391K	193	–	$9.8K	$5.8K	$4.4K

Per home means per home sold in the quarter. Selling and holding costs and write-downs are the lines Opendoor itemises between gross profit and contribution profit (holding costs include those from earlier quarters on homes sold now; write-downs are this quarter's inventory valuation adjustment). Opendoor doesn't report renovation spend on its own: it is part of what each home costs, so it shows up in gross margin. Days of inventory: average inventory over the quarter divided by the cost of the homes sold, times the days in the quarter. A dash means the release for that quarter isn't parsed yet.

Stress tests

Tick one or more to see which way the score would move

Mortgage rates 0.5 points higher Home prices 5% lower Contracts another 20% short

Nothing ticked: the score is as published.

What changes	Today	Stressed
Mortgage rates 0.5 points higher
30-year US mortgage rate	7.24%	7.74%
Mortgage rate change, last 13 weeks	+0.58pp	+1.08pp
Moves the mortgage rate and its 13-week change.
Home prices 5% lower
Home-backed debt vs the value of homes held	95.5%	100.5%
Asking prices vs a year ago, Opendoor's markets	-2.6%	-7.6%
Price / book (pro forma)	2.61x	3.00x
Homes are marked 5% lower against the debt on them and against book value, and asking prices fall 5 points. Margins are left as reported: how much reaches them depends on how fast Opendoor reprices, which this page can't know.
Contracts another 20% short
Contracts, last 4 wks vs projection midpoint	-26.7%	-41.3%
Acquisition contracts, last qtr vs prior	+0.5%	-19.6%
Contracts signed 20% below today's level, against the projection and the quarter before.

Each test re-runs the same scoring on the changed inputs and leaves everything else as it is. It shows direction and rough size, not a forecast.

Analyst view

What would move the score

Where the 5.38 comes from, and the moves that would add most

Now 5.38, grade CB starts at 6.50: 1.12 away A starts at 8.00: 2.62 away

The five biggest single moves

Metric	Now	Full marks at	Change needed	Overall	Each point
GAAP net margin, last 2 qtrsProfitability	-20.9%0.0 pts	+2.0%	+22.9pp	+0.50	2.2pp = +0.050
Home-backed debt vs the value of homes heldBalance sheet	95.5%2.2 pts	80.0%	-15.5pp	+0.39	-2.0pp = +0.050
Stock comp / revenueDilution	13.5%0.0 pts	1.0%	-12.5pp	+0.33	-0.9pp = +0.033
Contracts, last 4 wks vs projection midpointExecution	-26.7%2.7 pts	+10.0%	+36.7pp	+0.27	5.0pp = +0.037
Acquisition contracts, last qtr vs priorGrowth	+0.5%5.1 pts	+20.0%	+19.5pp	+0.25	4.0pp = +0.050

All five together: 5.38 to 7.12, grade B. No single metric closes the 1.12 gap to B on its own.

Every metric's share of the score

Metric	Pillar	Points	Overall per point	Supplies	At full marks
Revenue YoY, latest quarter (estimate until reported)	Growth	7.5	0.050	0.38	+0.13
Quarter-to-date homes sold YoY	Growth	9.1	0.050	0.46	+0.04
Acquisition contracts, last qtr vs prior	Growth	5.1	0.050	0.26	+0.25
Contribution margin	Unit economics	8.3	0.030	0.25	+0.04
Contribution margin, latest qtr vs the one before	Unit economics	9.7	0.030	0.29	+0.00
Gross margin	Unit economics	6.8	0.030	0.20	+0.09
Homes listed 120+ days, share of inventory	Unit economics	8.9	0.030	0.27	+0.03
Days of inventory (average inventory / cost of homes sold)	Unit economics	2.7	0.030	0.08	+0.21
GAAP net margin, last 2 qtrs	Profitability	0.0	0.050	0.00	+0.50
Adj. EBITDA margin	Profitability	5.7	0.050	0.29	+0.21
Adj. net income margin (target: positive by end-2026)	Profitability	6.0	0.050	0.30	+0.20
Last qtr homes sold vs mgmt expectation	Execution	4.0	0.037	0.15	+0.23
Contracts, last 4 wks vs projection midpoint	Execution	2.7	0.037	0.10	+0.27
Relative clearance vs MLS, 4-wk avg	Execution	5.4	0.037	0.20	+0.18
Signed purchase contracts that fell through, last qtr (est.)	Execution	3.9	0.037	0.15	+0.23
Cash vs the company's own debt (convertible notes)	Balance sheet	8.0	0.050	0.40	+0.11
Home-backed debt vs the value of homes held	Balance sheet	2.2	0.050	0.11	+0.39
Cash runway at current adj. net loss (home purchases are debt-funded, excluded)	Balance sheet	10.0	0.050	0.50	–
Share count change YoY	Dilution	3.3	0.033	0.11	+0.22
Stock comp / revenue	Dilution	0.0	0.033	0.00	+0.33
Potential new shares live at today's price	Dilution	8.1	0.033	0.27	+0.06
Price / sales (TTM)	Valuation	9.0	0.025	0.23	+0.03
Price / book (pro forma)	Valuation	6.8	0.025	0.17	+0.08
Share price, 1 year	Momentum	0.0	0.017	0.00	+0.16
Position in 52-week range	Momentum	0.3	0.017	0.01	+0.16
Price vs 200-day average	Momentum	0.0	0.017	0.00	+0.16
30-year US mortgage rate	Housing market	2.5	0.010	0.03	+0.08
Mortgage rate change, last 13 weeks	Housing market	1.1	0.010	0.01	+0.09
Days on market vs a year ago, Opendoor's markets	Housing market	7.3	0.010	0.07	+0.03
Price cuts per 100 listings vs a year ago, Opendoor's markets	Housing market	10.0	0.010	0.10	–
Asking prices vs a year ago, Opendoor's markets	Housing market	2.7	0.010	0.03	+0.08

A metric supplies its points x its pillar's weight, shared between the pillar's scored metrics. They add up to 5.39; the published 5.38 differs only because pillar scores are rounded to one decimal first.

"Overall" re-runs the scoring with that one metric at its 10-point value and everything else unchanged. "Each point" is the change in the metric that earns one more point, and what that adds to the overall. The list ranks arithmetic, not likelihood: some inputs, such as the share price, are not in management's hands.

Estimate track record

This page's revenue estimate before each report, against what Opendoor then reported

3.1%

average miss, backtest

Live

Quarter	Our estimate	Guidance	Reported	Error
Q3 2026	$1,026MNov 5, 2026, 2 so far	at least $1,098M	pending	–

The live record starts with Q3 2026: the estimate is saved on every run until the results are out, and the last one made before them is the one that counts.

Backtest of the same method

Quarter	Homes sold	Revenue per home	Estimate	Reported	Error
Q2 2026	2,339	$373K	$873M	$883M	-1.1%
Q1 2026	1,921	$363K	$698M	$720M	-3.1%
Q4 2025	1,978	$361K	$715M	$736M	-2.9%
Q3 2025	2,568	$375K	$964M	$915M	+5.4%

Method: homes sold in the quarter (from Opendoor's tracker, before the report) x revenue per home sold over the two quarters before. The backtest uses the homes sold Opendoor later reported, so it tests only the revenue-per-home assumption; the live record also carries any gap between the tracker and the reported count. Errors are estimate vs reported: positive means the estimate was too high.

Per share

The balance sheet, per share, next to the $1.98 share price

What	Total	Per share925.8M shares	Diluted985.2M shares
Cash	$1.20bn	$1.30	$1.22
Book value (equity)	$704M	$0.76	$0.71
Equity in homes (homes less the debt secured on them)	$83M	$0.09	$0.08
Convertible notes (the company's own debt)	-$709M	-$0.77	-$0.72
Cash less convertible notes	$492M	$0.53	$0.50

From the Q2 2026 balance sheet, adjusted for the capital deals since (see Details). Diluted adds the potential new shares that are live at today's price. Equity in homes is what they are carried at less the debt secured on them, before selling costs or any fall in prices (see the stress table in Details).

What today's price implies

Worked backwards from the share price: the revenue Opendoor would need, on assumptions you can change

Yearwhen the business is judgedReturn wanteda year, from today's price%Net margin thennet income / revenue%Earnings multiple thenprice / earningsx

Count today's cash less the convertible notes ($492M) as still there

For scale: revenue was $15.57bn in 2022, the highest calendar year in the data, and $4.37bn in 2025.

Revenue needed, by margin and multiple

Starts from today's market value (price x pro-forma shares), grows it at the return you want to the end of the year you pick, takes off the cash if you count it, and divides by the multiple and the margin. It leaves out further dilution and cash burn before then, both of which would raise the bar. A way of reading the price, not a forecast or a price target.

Opendoor's own targets

Acquisition contracts vs projection

Weekly contracts signed, against the range Opendoor projects for itself

↘ -27%

last 4 weeks vs projection midpoint

Contracts signedOpendoor's projected range

Swipe for earlier weeks, tap the chart for figures

Last 4 weeks: 1,847 contracts vs a projected 1,897–3,140; 4 of the last 13 weeks were below the range. If the last 4 weeks had hit the projection midpoint, Execution would score 5.3 instead of 4.0, and the overall score would be 5.58 (+0.20). Source: accountable.opendoor.com, data as of Oct 31, 2026.

Contracts that fell through

Signed purchase contracts that never became a home bought

25%

Q2 2026, derived

Quarter	Open at start	Signed	Bought	Open at end	Fell through	Rate
Q2 2026	1,939	7,014	4,378	2,310	2,265	25%
Q1 2026	710	4,924	2,474	1,939	1,221	22%
Q4 2025	526	2,533	1,706	710	643	21%
Q3 2025	393	1,581	1,169	526	279	14%
Q2 2025	1,051	1,368	1,757	393	269	11%
Q1 2025	1,705	3,625	3,609	1,051	670	13%

Worked out from Opendoor's own numbers: contracts open at the start of the quarter, plus contracts signed in it, less homes bought, less contracts still open at the end. What is left was cancelled or lapsed. "Open" counts are the homes under contract to purchase that each earnings release reports; "Signed" is the weekly tracker summed by the week-ending date, which Opendoor says is not reduced for later cancellations. The rate divides by everything open during the quarter. Week boundaries don't match quarter ends exactly, so treat each figure as +/- 1 to 2 points. Quarters up to Q3 2025 use the tracker's "a year earlier" column.

Path to management's targets

What Opendoor said it would do, and what it has reported

Adjusted net income positive by the end of 2026, measured on a twelve-month go-forward basisOn pace

Adj. net income by quarter: Q3 2025 -$61M, Q4 2025 -$62M, Q1 2026 -$49M, Q2 2026 -$30M. At the latest quarter's pace (+$19M a quarter), Q4 2026 would come in at about +$8M. That is a straight line from the last two quarters, not a forecast.

Said in the Q4 2025 release (Feb 19, 2026); repeated in the Q2 2026 release (Aug 4, 2026). "Twelve-month go-forward basis" is management's own measure and isn't reported, so the page tracks the reported quarterly figure.

Adjusted EBITDA profitable on a twelve-month go-forward basis from Q2 2026Not yet positive

Adj. EBITDA by quarter: Q3 2025 -$33M, Q4 2025 -$43M, Q1 2026 -$31M, Q2 2026 -$4M. The target date has passed: reported Adj. EBITDA is -$4M for Q2 2026.

Said in the Q1 2026 release (May 7, 2026); repeated in the Q2 2026 release (Aug 4, 2026). "Twelve-month go-forward basis" is management's own measure and isn't reported, so the page tracks the reported quarterly figure.

Guidance track record

9 of 12 guided items met or beaten over the last 4 reported quarters (Q3 2025 to Q2 2026): 4 beaten, 5 met, 2 close, 1 missed.

What Opendoor said	Reported
Q3 2026 guidance from the Q2 2026 release (Aug 4, 2026)
Revenue up at least 20% year on year	–	Pending
Contribution margin around 4% to 4.5%	–	Pending
Contribution profit more than double year on year	–	Pending
Stock-based compensation about $110M	–	Pending
Q2 2026 guidance from the Q1 2026 release (May 7, 2026)
Revenue up about 25% on the quarter before	+22.6%	Close
Contribution margin in the middle of the 5% to 7% range	5.8%	Met
Adj. EBITDA breakeven, plus or minus a few million	-$4M	Met
Q1 2026 guidance from the Q4 2025 release (Feb 19, 2026)
Revenue down about 10% on the quarter	-2.2%	Beat
Adj. EBITDA loss in the low to mid $30Ms	-$31M	Met
Q4 2025 guidance from the Q3 2025 release (Nov 6, 2025)
Homes purchased up at least 35% on the quarter	+45.9%	Met
Revenue down about 35% on the quarter	-19.6%	Beat
Contribution margin below Q3 2025's 2.2%	1.0%	Met
Adj. EBITDA loss in the high $40Ms to mid $50Ms	-$43M	Beat
Q3 2025 guidance from the Q2 2025 release (Aug 5, 2025)
Revenue of $800M to $875M	$915M	Beat
Contribution profit of $22M to $29M	$20M	Close
Adj. EBITDA of -$28M to -$21M	-$33M	Missed

Met: inside the guided range (allowing for rounding). Beat: better than the range. Close: within half the range width (or twice the tolerance) on the wrong side. Guidance that reported quarterly figures can't check, such as a monthly exit rate, is left out.

Before the Q3 2026 report: this page's revenue estimate is $1,027M against guidance of $1,098M or more. The gap is the revenue per home the estimate assumes ($376K); to meet guidance on 2,728 homes, revenue per home would need to be at least $402K.

Over time

Overall score over time

One point per weekday, over the grade bands

5.38 C

today

History builds daily. Thresholds and weights are judgment calls and have not been back-tested against returns.

Quarterly results

$ millions, from Opendoor's earnings releases and SEC filings

Quarter	Revenue	Net income	Adj. net income	Cash	Bought	Sold	Contrib. %	120+ days %
Q2 2026	883	-162	-30	896	4,378	2,339	5.8	9
Q1 2026	720	-173	-49	999	2,474	1,921	4.4	10
Q4 2025	736	-1,096	-62	962	1,706	1,978	1.0	33
Q3 2025	915	-90	-61	962	1,169	2,568	2.2	51
Q2 2025	1,567	-29	-9	789	1,757	4,299	4.4	36
Q1 2025	1,153	-85	-63	559	3,609	2,946	4.7	–
Q4 2024	1,084	-113	–	671	–	–	–	–
Q3 2024	1,377	-78	–	829	–	–	–	–

Run history

Every pillar's score on every day

▾

Run	Price	Overall	Growth	Unit economics	Profitability	Execution	Balance sheet	Dilution	Valuation	Momentum	Housing market
Nov 5, 2026	$1.98	5.38 C	7.2	7.3	3.9	4.0	6.7	3.8	7.9	0.1	4.7
Nov 4, 2026	$1.74	5.40 C	7.2	7.3	3.9	4.0	6.7	3.8	8.4	0.0	4.7

How the score works

Pillar weights, and why

The overall score is the weighted average of the pillar scores

Pillar	Weight	Score	Why this weight
Growth	15%	7.2	Scale drives operating leverage; uses Opendoor's live tracker as well as reported revenue.
Unit economics	15%	7.3	Whether each home earns money and sells quickly decides everything else.
Profitability	15%	3.9	Management's own headline target is company-level profit (adjusted net income).
Execution	15%	4.0	Opendoor publishes weekly projections for itself; this checks them.
Balance sheet	15%	6.7	Inventory is funded with debt, so a fall in home prices shows up here first.
Dilution	10%	3.8	Heavy stock pay and convertibles decide your share of any recovery.
Valuation	5%	7.9	Kept small: at this stage price multiples say less than execution does.
Momentum	5%	0.1	The market's view, kept small so the share price doesn't drive the score.
Housing market	5%	4.7	Kept at 5% on purpose: housing conditions already move Unit economics (margins, aged homes, days of inventory) and Execution (contracts, sale speed). A bigger weight would count the same headwind twice.

Scenario tool

Change a few inputs or the pillar weights; the same thresholds and arithmetic re-score it here. The published score doesn't change.

5.38

grade C, as published

Inputs

Today's published inputs

Revenue YoY, latest quarterpublished +12.2% (estimate)%Contribution marginpublished +5.8%%Homes sold vs Opendoor's expectationpublished -7.0%%

A contribution margin you enter is treated as Q3 2026's, so "margin vs the quarter before" becomes it minus Q2 2026's 5.8%. Homes sold vs expectation for Q3 2026 is already final on the tracker, so the presets leave it alone.

Pillar weights

Growth7.215%

Unit economics7.315%

Profitability3.915%

Execution4.015%

Balance sheet6.715%

Dilution3.810%

Valuation7.95%

Momentum0.15%

Housing market4.75%

Presets are hypothetical inputs set around Opendoor's own guidance, not forecasts, and disappear once that quarter is reported. Weights are scaled to add up to 100%, so only their sizes relative to each other matter. Every change is kept in the page address, so a copied link opens the same scenario; weights in a link are scaled the same way. A pillar with no score is left out, as on the rest of the page.

Every metric, its thresholds and its data

Points run in a straight line from the "0 points" value to the "10 points" value, and stop at 0 and 10

Metric	Now	0 points at	10 points at	Points	Data
Growth (15%), scoring 7.2
Revenue YoY, latest quarter (estimate until reported)	+12.2%	-40.0%	+30.0%	7.5	Q3 2026 estimate
Quarter-to-date homes sold YoY	+44.0%	-20.0%	+50.0%	9.1	Tracker Oct 31, 2026
Acquisition contracts, last qtr vs prior	+0.5%	-20.0%	+20.0%	5.1	Tracker Oct 31, 2026
Unit economics (15%), scoring 7.3
Contribution margin	+5.8%	+0.0%	+7.0%	8.3	Q2 2026
Contribution margin, latest qtr vs the one before	+1.40pp	-1.50pp	+1.50pp	9.7	Q2 2026
Gross margin	+9.7%	+5.0%	+12.0%	6.8	Q2 2026
Homes listed 120+ days, share of inventory	9.0%	40.0%	5.0%	8.9	Q2 2026
Days of inventory (average inventory / cost of homes sold)	170 days	200 days	90 days	2.7	Q2 2026
Profitability (15%), scoring 3.9
GAAP net margin, last 2 qtrs	-20.9%	-20.0%	+2.0%	0.0	Q2 2026
Adj. EBITDA margin	-0.5%	-5.0%	+3.0%	5.7	Q2 2026
Adj. net income margin (target: positive by end-2026)	-3.4%	-10.0%	+1.0%	6.0	Q2 2026
Execution (15%), scoring 4.0
Last qtr homes sold vs mgmt expectation	-7.0%	-15.0%	+5.0%	4.0	Tracker Oct 31, 2026
Contracts, last 4 wks vs projection midpoint	-26.7%	-40.0%	+10.0%	2.7	Tracker Oct 31, 2026
Relative clearance vs MLS, 4-wk avg	1.11x	0.90x	1.30x	5.4	Tracker Oct 31, 2026
Signed purchase contracts that fell through, last qtr (est.)	25.3%	35.0%	10.0%	3.9	Q2 2026
Balance sheet (15%), scoring 6.7
Cash vs the company's own debt (convertible notes)	1.69x	0.50x	2.00x	8.0	Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals
Home-backed debt vs the value of homes held	95.5%	100.0%	80.0%	2.2	Q2 2026
Cash runway at current adj. net loss (home purchases are debt-funded, excluded)	40.0 qtrs	4.0 qtrs	16.0 qtrs	10.0	Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals
Dilution (10%), scoring 3.8
Share count change YoY	+20.0%	+30.0%	+0.0%	3.3	Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals
Stock comp / revenue	13.5%	10.0%	1.0%	0.0	Q2 2026
Potential new shares live at today's price	6.4%	25.0%	2.0%	8.1	Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals
Valuation (5%), scoring 7.9
Price / sales (TTM)	0.56x	3.00x	0.30x	9.0	Price Nov 4, 2026, sales to Q2 2026
Price / book (pro forma)	2.61x	6.00x	1.00x	6.8	Price Nov 4, 2026, book at Q2 2026
Momentum (5%), scoring 0.1
Share price, 1 year	-73.9%	-70.0%	+30.0%	0.0	Close Nov 4, 2026
Position in 52-week range	3.1%	0.0%	100.0%	0.3	Close Nov 4, 2026
Price vs 200-day average	-52.2%	-40.0%	+10.0%	0.0	Close Nov 4, 2026
Housing market (5%), scoring 4.7
30-year US mortgage rate	7.24%	8.00%	5.00%	2.5	Week of Oct 29, 2026
Mortgage rate change, last 13 weeks	+0.58pp	+0.75pp	-0.75pp	1.1	Week of Oct 29, 2026
Days on market vs a year ago, Opendoor's markets	+0.9%	+30.0%	-10.0%	7.3	Oct 2026
Price cuts per 100 listings vs a year ago, Opendoor's markets	-3.12pp	+6.00pp	-3.00pp	10.0	Oct 2026
Asking prices vs a year ago, Opendoor's markets	-2.6%	-5.0%	+4.0%	2.7	Oct 2026

A metric whose data is two quarters behind the latest report stops counting; its pillar then averages the rest. Data more than a quarter old is marked in amber.

Method changes

What changed in the scoring, and when. The run history marks each break with the method version.

v2, Nov 4, 2026. Added three metrics: contribution margin vs the quarter before and days of inventory (Unit economics), and signed contracts that fell through (Execution). Scores from before this date are not directly comparable.

Follow the score by email. Weekly, free.Subscribe

An idea by
Federico R. T. Ferrari

Opendoor,scored.Every weekday.

Get the score in your inbox

Score by pillar

Context vs Opendoor's own history

How fresh the data is

Growth

Unit economics

Profitability

Execution

Balance sheet

Dilution

Valuation

Momentum

Housing market

Debt, split by what backs it

Dilution, line by line

Housing in Opendoor's markets

Unit economics, quarter by quarter

Stress tests

What would move the score

Estimate track record

Per share

What today's price implies

Acquisition contracts vs projection

Contracts that fell through

Path to management's targets

Overall score over time

Quarterly results

Run history

Pillar weights, and why

Scenario tool

Every metric, its thresholds and its data

Method changes

Opendoor,
scored.
Every weekday.