{ "generated": "2026-11-05T11:50", "ticker": "OPEN", "price": { "date": "2026-11-04", "price": 1.98, "high_52w": 9.37, "low_52w": 1.74, "return_1y": -0.7391304347826086, "ma200": 4.138275, "source": "Nasdaq" }, "method": "2", "extra": { "analyst": { "backtest": [ { "quarter": "2025-09-30", "homes": 2568.0, "rph_k": 375.4313319530711, "estimate": 964.1076604554866, "reported": 915.0, "error": 0.05366957426829133 }, { "quarter": "2025-12-31", "homes": 1978.0, "rph_k": 361.43876510848986, "estimate": 714.925877384593, "reported": 736.0, "error": -0.028633318770933336 }, { "quarter": "2026-03-31", "homes": 1921.0, "rph_k": 363.17641882974044, "estimate": 697.6619005719314, "reported": 720.0, "error": -0.031025138094539773 }, { "quarter": "2026-06-30", "homes": 2339.0, "rph_k": 373.4290843806104, "estimate": 873.4506283662478, "reported": 883.0, "error": -0.010814690411950378 } ], "per_share": { "shares_m": 925.8000000000001, "diluted_m": 985.1722210909091, "price": 1.98, "as_of": "2026-06-30", "rows": [ { "label": "Cash", "musd": 1200.5, "basic": 1.2967163534240655, "diluted": 1.2185686667765077 }, { "label": "Book value (equity)", "musd": 703.5, "basic": 0.7598833441348023, "diluted": 0.7140883440876911 }, { "label": "Equity in homes (homes less the debt secured on them)", "musd": 83.0, "basic": 0.08965219269820696, "diluted": 0.08424922893998345 }, { "label": "Convertible notes (the company's own debt)", "musd": -709.0, "basic": -0.7658241520846835, "diluted": -0.7196711243186539 }, { "label": "Cash less convertible notes", "musd": 491.5, "basic": 0.5308922013393821, "diluted": 0.49889754245785384 } ] }, "year_revenue": { "2019": 4740.583, "2020": 2583.121, "2021": 8021.0, "2022": 15567.0, "2023": 6946.0, "2024": 5153.0, "2025": 4371.0 }, "market_cap_musd": 1833.084, "ttm_revenue_musd": 3254.0, "price": 1.98, "price_date": "2026-11-04" }, "next_results": { "date": "2026-11-05", "what": "Q3 2026 results, after the US close", "quarter": "2026-09-30" }, "fallout": [ { "quarter": "2025-03-31", "open_start": 1705.0, "signed": 3625, "weeks": 13, "purchased": 3609.0, "open_end": 1051.0, "lost": 670.0, "rate": 0.12570356472795496, "source": "tracker, year-earlier column" }, { "quarter": "2025-06-30", "open_start": 1051.0, "signed": 1368, "weeks": 13, "purchased": 1757.0, "open_end": 393.0, "lost": 269.0, "rate": 0.11120297643654403, "source": "tracker, year-earlier column" }, { "quarter": "2025-09-30", "open_start": 393.0, "signed": 1581, "weeks": 13, "purchased": 1169.0, "open_end": 526.0, "lost": 279.0, "rate": 0.1413373860182371, "source": "tracker, year-earlier column" }, { "quarter": "2025-12-31", "open_start": 526.0, "signed": 2533, "weeks": 13, "purchased": 1706.0, "open_end": 710.0, "lost": 643.0, "rate": 0.2101994115724093, "source": "tracker" }, { "quarter": "2026-03-31", "open_start": 710.0, "signed": 4924, "weeks": 13, "purchased": 2474.0, "open_end": 1939.0, "lost": 1221.0, "rate": 0.2167199148029819, "source": "tracker" }, { "quarter": "2026-06-30", "open_start": 1939.0, "signed": 7014, "weeks": 13, "purchased": 4378.0, "open_end": 2310.0, "lost": 2265.0, "rate": 0.25298782530995195, "source": "tracker" } ], "ue_history": [ { "quarter": "2025-03-31", "cm": 4.7, "gm": 8.586296617519515, "homes_sold": 2946.0, "revenue_per_home_k": 391.37813985064497, "cp_per_home_k": 18.39477257298031, "days_inv": 193.02182163187854, "aged": null, "selling_k": 9.843856076035303, "holding_k": 5.770536320434488, "writedown_k": 4.412763068567549 }, { "quarter": "2025-06-30", "cm": 4.4, "gm": 8.168474792597321, "homes_sold": 4299.0, "revenue_per_home_k": 364.50337287741337, "cp_per_home_k": 16.038148406606187, "days_inv": 123.06184850590688, "aged": 36.0, "selling_k": 10.002326122354036, "holding_k": 5.350081414282391, "writedown_k": 4.884856943475227 }, { "quarter": "2025-09-30", "cm": 2.2, "gm": 7.213114754098362, "homes_sold": 2568.0, "revenue_per_home_k": 356.30841121495325, "cp_per_home_k": 7.838785046728972, "days_inv": 139.95053003533567, "aged": 51.0, "selling_k": 10.903426791277258, "holding_k": 6.230529595015576, "writedown_k": 5.841121495327102 }, { "quarter": "2025-12-31", "cm": 1.0, "gm": 7.744565217391304, "homes_sold": 1978.0, "revenue_per_home_k": 372.09302325581393, "cp_per_home_k": 3.72093023255814, "days_inv": 134.00294550810014, "aged": 33.0, "selling_k": 11.627906976744185, "holding_k": 7.583417593528817, "writedown_k": 4.550050556117291 }, { "quarter": "2026-03-31", "cm": 4.4, "gm": 10.0, "homes_sold": 1921.0, "revenue_per_home_k": 374.8047891723061, "cp_per_home_k": 16.49141072358147, "days_inv": 143.33333333333334, "aged": 10.0, "selling_k": 11.972930765226444, "holding_k": 6.246746486205101, "writedown_k": 4.685059864653826 }, { "quarter": "2026-06-30", "cm": 5.8, "gm": 9.739524348810873, "homes_sold": 2339.0, "revenue_per_home_k": 377.51175716118, "cp_per_home_k": 21.89568191534844, "days_inv": 170.3538268506901, "aged": 9.0, "selling_k": 12.398460880718256, "holding_k": 4.70286447199658, "writedown_k": 5.985463873450192 } ], "stress": { "r": { "name": "Mortgage rates 0.5 points higher", "changes": [ [ "mortgage_rate", 0.07740000000000001 ], [ "mortgage_13w", 0.0108 ] ], "note": "Moves the mortgage rate and its 13-week change." }, "h": { "name": "Home prices 5% lower", "changes": [ [ "home_debt_ltv", 1.0052774211952646 ], [ "list_price_yoy", -0.0759 ], [ "pb", 2.998910429447853 ] ], "note": "Homes are marked 5% lower against the debt on them and against book value, and asking prices fall 5 points. Margins are left as reported: how much reaches them depends on how fast Opendoor reprices, which this page can't know." }, "c": { "name": "Contracts another 20% short", "changes": [ [ "contracts_vs_proj", -0.4133015683938852 ], [ "contracts_qoq", -0.19612204163102365 ] ], "note": "Contracts signed 20% below today's level, against the projection and the quarter before." } }, "hit_rate": { "met": 5, "beat": 4, "close": 2, "missed": 1, "quarters": [ "2025-09-30", "2025-12-31", "2026-03-31", "2026-06-30" ], "items": 12 }, "market_cap_musd": 1833.084, "ttm_revenue_musd": 3254.0, "shares_m": 925.8000000000001, "pro_forma": { "cash_musd": 1200.5, "home_debt_musd": 1762.0, "convert_debt_musd": 709.0, "total_debt_musd": 2471.0, "equity_musd": 703.5, "shares_m": 925.8000000000001, "as_of": "2026-06-30" }, "capital_events": [ "$135M of 2026 convertible notes repaid at maturity", "$650M 0% convertible notes due 2030, $158M buyback of 45.3M shares, $52.5M capped call" ], "q3_revenue_estimate_musd": 1026.5220657276996, "revenue_per_home_k": 376.29107981220653, "q3_prior_revenue_musd": 915.0, "shares_year_ago": 771.53, "shares_year_ago_date": "2025-09-30", "reported_rev_yoy": -0.43650287172941926, "adj_net_income_musd": -30.0, "adj_net_income_quarter": "2026-06-30", "balance_sheet": { "quarter_end": "2026-06-30", "cash_musd": 896.0, "home_debt_musd": 1762.0, "convert_debt_musd": 194.0, "total_debt_musd": 1956.0, "inventory_musd": 1845.0, "equity_musd": 914.0 }, "dilution": { "quarter": "2026-06-30", "source": "10-Q", "price": 1.98, "shares_m": 925.8000000000001, "potential_m": 399.47429, "live_m": 59.37222109090909, "lines": [ { "label": "RSUs, options and employee share plan", "n": 32.17, "needs": "Counted in full", "live": 32.17 }, { "label": "CEO award 1", "n": 40.886344, "needs": "$6.24 average", "live": 0.0 }, { "label": "CEO award 2", "n": 40.886344, "needs": "$9 to $33 average, in 7 steps", "live": 0.0 }, { "label": "Other price-target awards", "n": 21.775312, "needs": "Counted in full (targets not itemised)", "live": 21.775312 }, { "label": "Warrants (Series K, A, Z)", "n": 99.588, "needs": "$9 / $13 / $17, expire Nov 20, 2026", "live": 0.0 }, { "label": "0% convertible notes due 2030", "n": 137.96029, "needs": "$4.71 to convert, capped call to $6.98", "live": 0.0 }, { "label": "7% convertible notes due 2030", "n": 26.208, "needs": "$1.57 to convert", "live": 5.42690909090909 } ], "curve": [ [ 1.0, 0.05826886152516742 ], [ 1.25, 0.05826886152516742 ], [ 1.5, 0.05826886152516742 ], [ 1.75, 0.06118059192050119 ], [ 1.98, 0.06413072055617745 ], [ 2.0, 0.0643551868654137 ], [ 2.25, 0.06682431626701231 ], [ 2.5, 0.0687996197882912 ], [ 2.75, 0.07041577721479211 ], [ 3.0, 0.07176257507020954 ], [ 3.25, 0.07290217325556274 ], [ 3.5, 0.07387897170015122 ], [ 3.75, 0.0747255303521279 ], [ 4.0, 0.07546626917260746 ], [ 4.25, 0.07611986224950124 ], [ 4.5, 0.07670083387340677 ], [ 4.75, 0.0772206505895328 ], [ 5.0, 0.07768848563404623 ], [ 5.25, 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"Phoenix", "code": "38060" }, { "month": "2026-10", "dom": 61.0, "dom_yoy": 0.0167, "price": 412000.0, "price_yoy": -0.0072, "listings": 30005.0, "listings_yoy": 0.0563, "cut_share": 0.35247458756873856, "cuts_yoy": -0.0282195912133254, "name": "Atlanta", "code": "12060" }, { "month": "2026-10", "dom": 64.0, "dom_yoy": 0.0, "price": 419900.0, "price_yoy": -0.012, "listings": 28952.0, "listings_yoy": -0.0169, "cut_share": 0.41005802707930367, "cuts_yoy": -0.04463185158262212, "name": "Dallas", "code": "19100" }, { "month": "2026-10", "dom": 57.0, "dom_yoy": 0.0088, "price": 350000.0, "price_yoy": -0.0223, "listings": 35620.0, "listings_yoy": 0.0493, "cut_share": 0.2991577765300393, "cuts_yoy": -0.01664328475061483, "name": "Houston", "code": "26420" }, { "month": "2026-10", "dom": 65.0, "dom_yoy": 0.1111, "price": 419900.0, "price_yoy": -0.0413, "listings": 11547.0, "listings_yoy": 0.1321, "cut_share": 0.4520654715510522, "cuts_yoy": -0.044618651452583424, "name": "Charlotte", "code": "16740" }, { "month": "2026-10", "dom": 64.0, "dom_yoy": 0.0667, "price": 445000.0, "price_yoy": -0.0262, "listings": 6130.0, "listings_yoy": 0.0755, "cut_share": 0.45546492659053833, "cuts_yoy": -0.023514763003794292, "name": "Raleigh", "code": "39580" }, { "month": "2026-10", "dom": 77.0, "dom_yoy": -0.0253, "price": 385000.0, "price_yoy": -0.0587, "listings": 18190.0, "listings_yoy": -0.0232, "cut_share": 0.39626168224299063, "cuts_yoy": -0.023871185677288576, "name": "Tampa", "code": "45300" }, { "month": "2026-10", "dom": 78.0, "dom_yoy": -0.0311, "price": 405000.0, "price_yoy": -0.0357, "listings": 14090.0, "listings_yoy": 0.0277, "cut_share": 0.36848828956706886, "cuts_yoy": 0.0005727982738825688, "name": "Orlando", "code": "36740" }, { "month": "2026-10", "dom": 59.0, "dom_yoy": 0.0261, "price": 459900.0, "price_yoy": -0.0256, "listings": 11447.0, "listings_yoy": 0.0981, "cut_share": 0.3417489298506159, "cuts_yoy": -0.04425652156777676, "name": "Las Vegas", "code": "29820" }, { "month": "2026-10", "dom": 60.0, "dom_yoy": -0.04, "price": 564900.0, "price_yoy": -0.0501, "listings": 13153.0, "listings_yoy": 0.0915, "cut_share": 0.4446133961833802, "cuts_yoy": -0.06074484804671404, "name": "Denver", "code": "19740" }, { "month": "2026-10", "dom": 63.0, "dom_yoy": 0.0413, "price": 529900.0, "price_yoy": -0.0129, "listings": 12145.0, "listings_yoy": 0.1192, "cut_share": 0.34153972828324414, "cuts_yoy": -0.034247986910038164, "name": "Nashville", "code": "34980" }, { "month": "2026-10", "dom": 74.0, "dom_yoy": 0.0068, "price": 319900.0, "price_yoy": -0.0254, "listings": 13792.0, "listings_yoy": 0.0247, "cut_share": 0.40052204176334105, "cuts_yoy": -0.023416535031303753, "name": "San Antonio", "code": "41700" } ], "us": { "month": "2026-10", "dom": 63.0, "dom_yoy": 0.008, "price": 415000.0, "price_yoy": -0.0221, "listings": 1183520.0, "listings_yoy": 0.0744, "cut_share": 0.3328612951196431, "cuts_yoy": -0.02024511826557074, "name": "United States", "code": "US" }, "basket": { "dom": 63.5, "dom_yoy": 0.008650000000000001, "cut_share": 0.39839186200316584, "cuts_yoy": -0.031233789061681783, "price_yoy": -0.0259, "listings_yoy": 0.0659 }, "source": "Realtor.com" }, "asof": { "contrib_margin": "2026-06-30", "gross_margin": "2026-06-30", "aged_inventory": "2026-06-30", "adj_ebitda_m": "2026-06-30", "ani_margin": "2026-06-30", "sbc_pct": "2026-06-30", "home_debt_ltv": "2026-06-30", "dilution_live": "2026-06-30", "contrib_trend": "2026-06-30", "days_inventory": "2026-06-30", "fallout": "2026-06-30" }, "notes": { "aged_inventory": "Whole market: 27%", "dilution_live": "Of 399M potential shares in all", "dom_yoy": "12 markets, Oct 2026", "cuts_yoy": "12 markets, Oct 2026", "list_price_yoy": "12 markets, Oct 2026", "home_debt_ltv": "Cushion 4.5% if home prices fall", "contrib_trend": "Q1 2026 4.4%, Q2 2026 5.8%", "days_inventory": "About 2.1 turns a year; inventory grew 62% in the quarter, which lengthens this", "rev_nowcast_yoy": "Estimate: 2,728 homes x $376K a home. Homes +6.2% YoY; assumes revenue per home +5.6%. Opendoor guided at least +20%", "coe_q4_yoy": "Q4 to Oct 28, 2026: 858 homes vs 596 a year earlier", "fallout": "2,265 of 8,953 contracts (1,939 open at the start + 7,014 signed); Q1 2026 22%" }, "latest_quarter": "2026-06-30", "fresh": { "contrib_margin": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "contrib_trend": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "gross_margin": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "aged_inventory": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "days_inventory": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "adj_ebitda_m": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "ani_margin": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "sbc_pct": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "home_debt_ltv": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "fallout": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "net_margin_2q": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "rev_nowcast_yoy": { "text": "Q3 2026 estimate", "date": "2026-09-30", "old": false }, "cash_vs_notes": { "text": "Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "runway_q": { "text": "Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "share_yoy": { "text": "Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "dilution_live": { "text": "Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "coe_q4_yoy": { "text": "Tracker Oct 31, 2026", "date": "2026-10-31", "old": false }, "contracts_qoq": { "text": "Tracker Oct 31, 2026", "date": "2026-10-31", "old": false }, "coe_vs_guide": { "text": "Tracker Oct 31, 2026", "date": "2026-10-31", "old": false }, "contracts_vs_proj": { "text": "Tracker Oct 31, 2026", "date": "2026-10-31", "old": false }, "clearance": { "text": "Tracker Oct 31, 2026", "date": "2026-10-31", "old": false }, "ret_1y": { "text": "Close Nov 4, 2026", "date": "2026-11-04", "old": false }, "range_pos": { "text": "Close Nov 4, 2026", "date": "2026-11-04", "old": false }, "vs_ma200": { "text": "Close Nov 4, 2026", "date": "2026-11-04", "old": false }, "ps": { "text": "Price Nov 4, 2026, sales to Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "pb": { "text": "Price Nov 4, 2026, book at Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true }, "mortgage_rate": { "text": "Week of Oct 29, 2026", "date": "2026-10-29", "old": false }, "mortgage_13w": { "text": "Week of Oct 29, 2026", "date": "2026-10-29", "old": false }, "dom_yoy": { "text": "Oct 2026", "date": "2026-10-01", "old": false }, "cuts_yoy": { "text": "Oct 2026", "date": "2026-10-01", "old": false }, "list_price_yoy": { "text": "Oct 2026", "date": "2026-10-01", "old": false } }, "nowcast": { "quarter": "2026-09-30", "homes": 2728, "rph_k": 376.29107981220653, "estimate": 1026.5220657276996, "prior_revenue": 915.0, "prior_homes": 2568.0, "homes_yoy": 0.06230529595015577, "prior_rph_k": 356.30841121495325, "rph_change": 0.056082505964750284, "rph_basis": "Q1 2026 and Q2 2026", "guide_min_yoy": 0.2, "guide_min_revenue": 1098.0 }, "inventory_velocity": { "quarter": "2026-06-30", "avg_inventory": 1492.0, "cogs": 797.0, "turns": 2.1425993577468105, "growth": 0.6198419666374013 }, "targets": [ { "what": "Adjusted net income positive by the end of 2026, measured on a twelve-month go-forward basis", "key": "adj_net_income_musd", "label": "Adj. net income", "by": "2026-12-31", "said": "Q4 2025 release (Feb 19, 2026); repeated in the Q2 2026 release (Aug 4, 2026)", "history": [ [ "2025-09-30", -61.0 ], [ "2025-12-31", -62.0 ], [ "2026-03-31", -49.0 ], [ "2026-06-30", -30.0 ] ], "latest": -30.0, "step": 19.0, "quarters_left": 2, "projection": 8.0 }, { "what": "Adjusted EBITDA profitable on a twelve-month go-forward basis from Q2 2026", "key": "adj_ebitda_musd", "label": "Adj. EBITDA", "by": "2026-06-30", "said": "Q1 2026 release (May 7, 2026); repeated in the Q2 2026 release (Aug 4, 2026)", "history": [ [ "2025-09-30", -33.0 ], [ "2025-12-31", -43.0 ], [ "2026-03-31", -31.0 ], [ "2026-06-30", -4.0 ] ], "latest": -4.0, "step": 27.0, "quarters_left": 0, "projection": null } ], "guidance": [ { "quarter": "2025-09-30", "said": "Q2 2025 release (Aug 5, 2025)", "items": [ { "what": "Revenue of $800M to $875M", "key": "revenue_musd", "kind": "range", "target": [ 800.0, 875.0 ], "better": 1, "actual": 915.0, "status": "beat" }, { "what": "Contribution profit of $22M to $29M", "key": "contribution_profit_musd", "kind": "range", "target": [ 22.0, 29.0 ], "better": 1, "actual": 20.130000000000003, "status": "close" }, { "what": "Adj. EBITDA of -$28M to -$21M", "key": "adj_ebitda_musd", "kind": "range", "target": [ -28.0, -21.0 ], "better": 1, "actual": -33.0, "status": "missed" } ] }, { "quarter": "2025-12-31", "said": "Q3 2025 release (Nov 6, 2025)", "items": [ { "what": "Homes purchased up at least 35% on the quarter", "key": "homes_purchased_qoq", "kind": "min", "target": 0.35, "better": 1, "actual": 0.4593669803250642, "status": "met" }, { "what": "Revenue down about 35% on the quarter", "key": "revenue_qoq", "kind": "approx", "target": [ -0.35, 0.02 ], "better": 1, "actual": -0.19562841530054642, "status": "beat" }, { "what": "Contribution margin below Q3 2025's 2.2%", "key": "contribution_margin", "kind": "max", "target": 2.2, "better": 0, "actual": 1.0, "status": "met" }, { "what": "Adj. EBITDA loss in the high $40Ms to mid $50Ms", "key": "adj_ebitda_musd", "kind": "range", "target": [ -56.0, -46.0 ], "better": 1, "actual": -43.0, "status": "beat" } ] }, { "quarter": "2026-03-31", "said": "Q4 2025 release (Feb 19, 2026)", "items": [ { "what": "Revenue down about 10% on the quarter", "key": "revenue_qoq", "kind": "approx", "target": [ -0.1, 0.02 ], "better": 1, "actual": -0.021739130434782594, "status": "beat" }, { "what": "Adj. EBITDA loss in the low to mid $30Ms", "key": "adj_ebitda_musd", "kind": "range", "target": [ -36.0, -30.0 ], "better": 1, "actual": -31.0, "status": "met" } ] }, { "quarter": "2026-06-30", "said": "Q1 2026 release (May 7, 2026)", "items": [ { "what": "Revenue up about 25% on the quarter before", "key": "revenue_qoq", "kind": "approx", "target": [ 0.25, 0.02 ], "better": 1, "actual": 0.22638888888888897, "status": "close" }, { "what": "Contribution margin in the middle of the 5% to 7% range", "key": "contribution_margin", "kind": "range", "target": [ 5.5, 6.5 ], "better": 1, "actual": 5.8, "status": "met" }, { "what": "Adj. EBITDA breakeven, plus or minus a few million", "key": "adj_ebitda_musd", "kind": "abs_max", "target": 5.0, "better": 1, "actual": -4.0, "status": "met" } ] }, { "quarter": "2026-09-30", "said": "Q2 2026 release (Aug 4, 2026)", "items": [ { "what": "Revenue up at least 20% year on year", "key": "revenue_yoy", "kind": "min", "target": 0.2, "better": 1, "actual": null, "status": "pending" }, { "what": "Contribution margin around 4% to 4.5%", "key": "contribution_margin", "kind": "range", "target": [ 4.0, 4.5 ], "better": 1, "actual": null, "status": "pending" }, { "what": "Contribution profit more than double year on year", "key": "contribution_profit_mult", "kind": "min", "target": 2.0, "better": 1, "actual": null, "status": "pending" }, { "what": "Stock-based compensation about $110M", "key": "sbc_musd", "kind": "approx", "target": [ 110.0, 10.0 ], "better": -1, "actual": null, "status": "pending" } ] } ], "mortgage": { "date": "2026-10-29", "rate": 0.0724, "rate_13w_ago": 0.0666, "rate_52w_ago": 0.0617, "source": "Freddie Mac PMMS" } }, "metrics": { "rev_nowcast_yoy": 0.12188203904666617, "coe_q4_yoy": 0.4395973154362416, "contracts_qoq": 0.004847447961220386, "contrib_margin": 0.057999999999999996, "contrib_trend": 0.013999999999999995, "days_inventory": 170.3538268506901, "gross_margin": 0.09739524348810873, "aged_inventory": 0.09, "net_margin_2q": -0.20898315658140987, "adj_ebitda_m": -0.004530011325028313, "ani_margin": -0.03397508493771234, "coe_vs_guide": -0.07021131561008864, "contracts_vs_proj": -0.26662696049235657, "clearance": 1.115, "cash_vs_notes": 1.6932299012693934, "home_debt_ltv": 0.9550135501355014, "runway_q": 40.016666666666666, "share_yoy": 0.19995333946832927, "sbc_pct": 0.1347678369195923, "dilution_live": 0.06413072055617745, "ps": 0.5633325138291334, "pb": 2.6056631130063965, "ret_1y": -0.7391304347826086, "range_pos": 0.031454783748361734, "vs_ma200": -0.521539772006452, "mortgage_rate": 0.0724, "mortgage_13w": 0.0058, "dom_yoy": 0.008650000000000001, "cuts_yoy": -0.031233789061681783, "list_price_yoy": -0.0259, "fallout": 0.25298782530995195 }, "score": { "overall": 5.38, "grade": "C", "verdict": "Mixed: the turnaround is plausible but unproven.", "pillars": [ { "name": "Growth", "weight": 15, "question": "Is the business getting bigger right now?", "score": 7.2, "metrics": [ { "key": "rev_nowcast_yoy", "label": "Revenue YoY, latest quarter (estimate until reported)", "value": 0.12188203904666617, "score": 7.5, "fmt": "pct", "bad": -0.4, "good": 0.3, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": "Estimate: 2,728 homes x $376K a home. Homes +6.2% YoY; assumes revenue per home +5.6%. Opendoor guided at least +20%", "fresh": { "text": "Q3 2026 estimate", "date": "2026-09-30", "old": false } }, { "key": "coe_q4_yoy", "label": "Quarter-to-date homes sold YoY", "value": 0.4395973154362416, "score": 9.1, "fmt": "pct", "bad": -0.2, "good": 0.5, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": "Q4 to Oct 28, 2026: 858 homes vs 596 a year earlier", "fresh": { "text": "Tracker Oct 31, 2026", "date": "2026-10-31", "old": false } }, { "key": "contracts_qoq", "label": "Acquisition contracts, last qtr vs prior", "value": 0.004847447961220386, "score": 5.1, "fmt": "pct", "bad": -0.2, "good": 0.2, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Tracker Oct 31, 2026", "date": "2026-10-31", "old": false } } ], "contribution": 1.08 }, { "name": "Unit economics", "weight": 15, "question": "Does each home flip make money, and is stock fresh?", "score": 7.3, "metrics": [ { "key": "contrib_margin", "label": "Contribution margin", "value": 0.057999999999999996, "score": 8.3, "fmt": "pct", "bad": 0.0, "good": 0.07, "asof": "2026-06-30", "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } }, { "key": "contrib_trend", "label": "Contribution margin, latest qtr vs the one before", "value": 0.013999999999999995, "score": 9.7, "fmt": "pp", "bad": -0.015, "good": 0.015, "asof": "2026-06-30", "lag": 0, "note": "Q1 2026 4.4%, Q2 2026 5.8%", "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } }, { "key": "gross_margin", "label": "Gross margin", "value": 0.09739524348810873, "score": 6.8, "fmt": "pct", "bad": 0.05, "good": 0.12, "asof": "2026-06-30", "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } }, { "key": "aged_inventory", "label": "Homes listed 120+ days, share of inventory", "value": 0.09, "score": 8.9, "fmt": "share", "bad": 0.4, "good": 0.05, "asof": "2026-06-30", "lag": 0, "note": "Whole market: 27%", "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } }, { "key": "days_inventory", "label": "Days of inventory (average inventory / cost of homes sold)", "value": 170.3538268506901, "score": 2.7, "fmt": "days", "bad": 200.0, "good": 90.0, "asof": "2026-06-30", "lag": 0, "note": "About 2.1 turns a year; inventory grew 62% in the quarter, which lengthens this", "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } } ], "contribution": 1.1 }, { "name": "Profitability", "weight": 15, "question": "Does the whole company make money?", "score": 3.9, "metrics": [ { "key": "net_margin_2q", "label": "GAAP net margin, last 2 qtrs", "value": -0.20898315658140987, "score": 0.0, "fmt": "pct", "bad": -0.2, "good": 0.02, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } }, { "key": "adj_ebitda_m", "label": "Adj. EBITDA margin", "value": -0.004530011325028313, "score": 5.7, "fmt": "pct", "bad": -0.05, "good": 0.03, "asof": "2026-06-30", "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } }, { "key": "ani_margin", "label": "Adj. net income margin (target: positive by end-2026)", "value": -0.03397508493771234, "score": 6.0, "fmt": "pct", "bad": -0.1, "good": 0.01, "asof": "2026-06-30", "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } } ], "contribution": 0.59 }, { "name": "Execution", "weight": 15, "question": "Is management hitting its own targets?", "score": 4.0, "metrics": [ { "key": "coe_vs_guide", "label": "Last qtr homes sold vs mgmt expectation", "value": -0.07021131561008864, "score": 4.0, "fmt": "pct", "bad": -0.15, "good": 0.05, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Tracker Oct 31, 2026", "date": "2026-10-31", "old": false } }, { "key": "contracts_vs_proj", "label": "Contracts, last 4 wks vs projection midpoint", "value": -0.26662696049235657, "score": 2.7, "fmt": "pct", "bad": -0.4, "good": 0.1, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Tracker Oct 31, 2026", "date": "2026-10-31", "old": false } }, { "key": "clearance", "label": "Relative clearance vs MLS, 4-wk avg", "value": 1.115, "score": 5.4, "fmt": "x", "bad": 0.9, "good": 1.3, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Tracker Oct 31, 2026", "date": "2026-10-31", "old": false } }, { "key": "fallout", "label": "Signed purchase contracts that fell through, last qtr (est.)", "value": 0.25298782530995195, "score": 3.9, "fmt": "share", "bad": 0.35, "good": 0.1, "asof": "2026-06-30", "lag": 0, "note": "2,265 of 8,953 contracts (1,939 open at the start + 7,014 signed); Q1 2026 22%", "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } } ], "contribution": 0.6 }, { "name": "Balance sheet", "weight": 15, "question": "Can it survive a bad housing year?", "score": 6.7, "metrics": [ { "key": "cash_vs_notes", "label": "Cash vs the company's own debt (convertible notes)", "value": 1.6932299012693934, "score": 8.0, "fmt": "x", "bad": 0.5, "good": 2.0, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } }, { "key": "home_debt_ltv", "label": "Home-backed debt vs the value of homes held", "value": 0.9550135501355014, "score": 2.2, "fmt": "share", "bad": 1.0, "good": 0.8, "asof": "2026-06-30", "lag": 0, "note": "Cushion 4.5% if home prices fall", "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } }, { "key": "runway_q", "label": "Cash runway at current adj. net loss (home purchases are debt-funded, excluded)", "value": 40.016666666666666, "score": 10.0, "fmt": "qtrs", "bad": 4.0, "good": 16.0, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } } ], "contribution": 1.0 }, { "name": "Dilution", "weight": 10, "question": "Is your slice of the company shrinking?", "score": 3.8, "metrics": [ { "key": "share_yoy", "label": "Share count change YoY", "value": 0.19995333946832927, "score": 3.3, "fmt": "pct", "bad": 0.3, "good": 0.0, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } }, { "key": "sbc_pct", "label": "Stock comp / revenue", "value": 0.1347678369195923, "score": 0.0, "fmt": "share", "bad": 0.1, "good": 0.01, "asof": "2026-06-30", "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } }, { "key": "dilution_live", "label": "Potential new shares live at today's price", "value": 0.06413072055617745, "score": 8.1, "fmt": "share", "bad": 0.25, "good": 0.02, "asof": "2026-06-30", "lag": 0, "note": "Of 399M potential shares in all", "fresh": { "text": "Q2 2026, adjusted for later deals", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } } ], "contribution": 0.38 }, { "name": "Valuation", "weight": 5, "question": "Are you overpaying for what exists today?", "score": 7.9, "metrics": [ { "key": "ps", "label": "Price / sales (TTM)", "value": 0.5633325138291334, "score": 9.0, "fmt": "x", "bad": 3.0, "good": 0.3, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Price Nov 4, 2026, sales to Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } }, { "key": "pb", "label": "Price / book (pro forma)", "value": 2.6056631130063965, "score": 6.8, "fmt": "x", "bad": 6.0, "good": 1.0, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Price Nov 4, 2026, book at Q2 2026", "date": "2026-06-30", "old": true } } ], "contribution": 0.4 }, { "name": "Momentum", "weight": 5, "question": "What is the market saying?", "score": 0.1, "metrics": [ { "key": "ret_1y", "label": "Share price, 1 year", "value": -0.7391304347826086, "score": 0.0, "fmt": "pct", "bad": -0.7, "good": 0.3, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Close Nov 4, 2026", "date": "2026-11-04", "old": false } }, { "key": "range_pos", "label": "Position in 52-week range", "value": 0.031454783748361734, "score": 0.3, "fmt": "share", "bad": 0.0, "good": 1.0, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Close Nov 4, 2026", "date": "2026-11-04", "old": false } }, { "key": "vs_ma200", "label": "Price vs 200-day average", "value": -0.521539772006452, "score": 0.0, "fmt": "pct", "bad": -0.4, "good": 0.1, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Close Nov 4, 2026", "date": "2026-11-04", "old": false } } ], "contribution": 0.0 }, { "name": "Housing market", "weight": 5, "question": "Is the market helping or hurting?", "score": 4.7, "metrics": [ { "key": "mortgage_rate", "label": "30-year US mortgage rate", "value": 0.0724, "score": 2.5, "fmt": "rate", "bad": 0.08, "good": 0.05, "asof": null, "lag": 0, "note": null, "fresh": { "text": "Week of Oct 29, 2026", "date": "2026-10-29", "old": false } }, { "key": "mortgage_13w", "label": "Mortgage 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"2024-12-31", "revenue_musd": 1084.0, "gross_profit_musd": 85.0, "net_income_musd": -113.0, "sbc_musd": 23.0, "fcf_musd": -83.0, "cash_musd": 671.0, "inventory_musd": 2159.0, "equity_musd": 713.0, "home_debt_musd": 1924.0, "convert_debt_musd": 378.0, "total_debt_musd": 2302.0, "shares_m": 719.990121 }, { "quarter_end": "2025-03-31", "revenue_musd": 1153.0, "gross_profit_musd": 99.0, "net_income_musd": -85.0, "sbc_musd": 14.0, "fcf_musd": -283.0, "cash_musd": 559.0, "inventory_musd": 2362.0, "equity_musd": 645.0, "home_debt_musd": 2133.0, "convert_debt_musd": 378.0, "total_debt_musd": 2511.0, "shares_m": 726.835454, "potential_dilution_m": 54.684, "adj_ebitda_musd": -30.0, "adj_net_income_musd": -63.0, "contribution_margin_pct": 4.7, "direct_selling_musd": -29.0, "holding_cur_musd": -5.0, "holding_prior_musd": -12.0, "homes_in_inventory": 7080.0, "homes_purchased": 3609.0, "homes_sold": 2946.0, "writedown_cur_musd": 13.0 }, { "quarter_end": "2025-06-30", "revenue_musd": 1567.0, "gross_profit_musd": 128.0, "net_income_musd": -29.0, "sbc_musd": 13.0, "fcf_musd": 821.0, "cash_musd": 789.0, "inventory_musd": 1530.0, "equity_musd": 631.0, "home_debt_musd": 1739.0, "convert_debt_musd": 437.0, "total_debt_musd": 2176.0, "shares_m": 729.0, "potential_dilution_m": 56.51, "adj_ebitda_musd": 23.0, "adj_net_income_musd": -9.0, "contribution_margin_pct": 4.4, "direct_selling_musd": 43.0, "holding_cur_musd": -6.0, "holding_prior_musd": -17.0, "homes_in_inventory": 4538.0, "homes_purchased": 1757.0, "homes_sold": 4299.0, "writedown_cur_musd": 21.0, "aged_120_pct": 36.0, "homes_under_contract": 393.0, "holding_musd": 23.0 }, { "quarter_end": "2025-09-30", "revenue_musd": 915.0, "gross_profit_musd": 66.0, "net_income_musd": -90.0, "sbc_musd": 13.0, "fcf_musd": 432.0, "cash_musd": 962.0, "inventory_musd": 1053.0, "equity_musd": 811.0, "home_debt_musd": 1340.0, "convert_debt_musd": 439.0, "total_debt_musd": 1779.0, "shares_m": 771.53, "potential_dilution_m": 250.905, "adj_ebitda_musd": -33.0, "adj_net_income_musd": -61.0, "contribution_margin_pct": 2.2, "direct_selling_musd": -28.0, "holding_cur_musd": -4.0, "holding_prior_musd": -12.0, "homes_in_inventory": 3139.0, "homes_purchased": 1169.0, "homes_sold": 2568.0, "homes_under_contract": 526.0, "homes_under_contract_py": 1006.0, "writedown_cur_musd": 15.0, "aged_120_pct": 51.0, "note": "shares = basic shares outstanding at 30 Sep 2025 (424B5 prospectus)" }, { "quarter_end": "2025-12-31", "revenue_musd": 736.0, "gross_profit_musd": 57.0, "net_income_musd": -1096.0, "sbc_musd": 119.0, "fcf_musd": 67.0, "cash_musd": 962.0, "inventory_musd": 925.0, "equity_musd": 1005.0, "home_debt_musd": 1120.0, "convert_debt_musd": 193.0, "total_debt_musd": 1313.0, "shares_m": 957.245487, "adj_ebitda_musd": -43.0, "adj_net_income_musd": -62.0, "aged_120_pct": 33.0, "contribution_margin_pct": 1.0, "direct_selling_musd": 23.0, "holding_cur_musd": -4.0, "holding_prior_musd": -11.0, "homes_in_inventory": 2867.0, "homes_purchased": 1706.0, "homes_sold": 1978.0, "homes_under_contract": 710.0, "homes_under_contract_py": 1705.0, "writedown_cur_musd": 9.0, "holding_musd": 15.0, "note": "net loss includes $933M one-off loss on debt extinguishment" }, { "quarter_end": "2026-03-31", "revenue_musd": 720.0, "gross_profit_musd": 72.0, "net_income_musd": -173.0, "sbc_musd": 120.0, "fcf_musd": -250.0, "cash_musd": 999.0, "inventory_musd": 1139.0, "equity_musd": 954.0, "home_debt_musd": 1138.0, "convert_debt_musd": 193.0, "total_debt_musd": 1331.0, "shares_m": 959.0, "potential_dilution_m": 267.402, "adj_ebitda_musd": -31.0, "adj_net_income_musd": -49.0, "aged_120_pct": 10.0, "contribution_margin_pct": 4.4, "direct_selling_musd": 23.0, "holding_cur_musd": -3.0, "holding_prior_musd": -9.0, "homes_in_inventory": 3420.0, "homes_purchased": 2474.0, "homes_sold": 1921.0, "homes_under_contract": 1939.0, "homes_under_contract_py": 1051.0, "market_aged_120_pct": 33.0, "writedown_cur_musd": 9.0, "holding_musd": 12.0 }, { "quarter_end": "2026-06-30", "revenue_musd": 883.0, "gross_profit_musd": 86.0, "net_income_musd": -162.0, "sbc_musd": 119.0, "fcf_musd": -723.0, "cash_musd": 896.0, "inventory_musd": 1845.0, "equity_musd": 914.0, "home_debt_musd": 1762.0, "convert_debt_musd": 194.0, "total_debt_musd": 1956.0, "shares_m": 971.1, "potential_dilution_m": 261.514, "adj_ebitda_musd": -4.0, "adj_net_income_musd": -30.0, "aged_120_pct": 9.0, "contribution_margin_pct": 5.8, "direct_selling_musd": 29.0, "holding_cur_musd": -3.0, "holding_prior_musd": -8.0, "homes_in_inventory": 5459.0, "homes_purchased": 4378.0, "homes_sold": 2339.0, "homes_under_contract": 2310.0, "homes_under_contract_py": 393.0, "market_aged_120_pct": 27.0, "writedown_cur_musd": 14.0, "holding_musd": 11.0, "note": "shares = 971.1M at 28 Jul 2026 (10-Q cover / Aug 13 8-K)" } ], "accountable": { "as_of": "2026-10-31", "prev_quarter": "Q3", "curr_quarter": "Q4", "prev_quarter_end": "2026-09-30", "q3_homes_sold": 2728, "q3_homes_sold_expected": 2934, "coe_vs_guide": -0.07021131561008864, "q4_homes_sold_qtd": 858, "q4_qtd_date": "2026-10-28", "coe_q4_yoy": 0.4395973154362416, "contracts_q2": 7014, "contracts_q3": 7048, "contracts_qoq": 0.004847447961220386, "contracts_last4": 1847, "contracts_last4_proj_low": 1897, "contracts_last4_proj_high": 3140, "contracts_vs_proj": -0.26662696049235657, "weeks_below_proj_13": 4, "clearance": 1.115, "weekly": [ [ "2025-10-04", 125, 125, 125, 210 ], [ "2025-10-11", 125, 125, 125, 244 ], [ "2025-10-18", 132, 132, 132, 319 ], [ "2025-10-25", 140, 140, 140, 341 ], [ "2025-11-01", 236, 236, 236, 281 ], [ "2025-11-08", 294, 294, 294, 354 ], [ "2025-11-15", 270, 270, 270, 382 ], [ "2025-11-22", 245, 245, 245, 317 ], [ "2025-11-29", 190, 190, 190, 358 ], [ "2025-12-06", 184, 184, 184, 425 ], [ "2025-12-13", 237, 237, 237, 462 ], [ "2025-12-20", 192, 192, 192, 268 ], [ "2025-12-27", 163, 163, 163, 244 ], [ "2026-01-03", 146, 146, 146, 375 ], [ "2026-01-10", 260, 260, 260, 358 ], [ "2026-01-17", 266, 266, 266, 358 ], [ "2026-01-24", 287, 287, 287, 392 ], [ "2026-01-31", 303, 303, 303, 338 ], [ "2026-02-07", 242, 242, 242, 275 ], [ "2026-02-14", 537, 238, 372, 218 ], [ "2026-02-21", 449, 238, 372, 257 ], [ "2026-02-28", 442, 239, 373, 253 ], [ "2026-03-07", 390, 239, 374, 223 ], [ "2026-03-14", 447, 239, 374, 168 ], [ "2026-03-21", 610, 241, 376, 197 ], [ "2026-03-28", 545, 242, 377, 213 ], [ "2026-04-04", 658, 247, 386, 182 ], [ "2026-04-11", 594, 247, 386, 130 ], [ "2026-04-18", 465, 247, 387, 113 ], [ "2026-04-25", 424, 247, 386, 108 ], [ "2026-05-02", 511, 387, 525, 101 ], [ "2026-05-09", 582, 361, 500, 113 ], [ "2026-05-16", 655, 339, 475, 119 ], [ "2026-05-23", 542, 313, 452, 93 ], [ "2026-05-30", 429, 289, 428, 76 ], [ "2026-06-06", 564, 269, 410, 78 ], [ "2026-06-13", 538, 249, 392, 80 ], [ "2026-06-20", 529, 234, 380, 87 ], [ "2026-06-27", 523, 225, 375, 88 ], [ "2026-07-04", 551, 217, 367, 107 ], [ "2026-07-11", 568, 225, 377, 105 ], [ "2026-07-18", 635, 233, 389, 121 ], [ "2026-07-25", 671, 245, 405, 119 ], [ "2026-08-01", 716, 259, 423, 128 ], [ "2026-08-08", 610, 274, 444, 142 ], [ "2026-08-15", 615, 291, 466, 132 ], [ "2026-08-22", 558, 309, 491, 107 ], [ "2026-08-29", 499, 328, 517, 102 ], [ "2026-09-05", 444, 357, 537, 128 ], [ "2026-09-12", 380, 363, 574, 131 ], [ "2026-09-19", 444, 380, 604, 132 ], [ "2026-09-26", 357, 398, 636, 127 ], [ "2026-10-03", 477, 436, 690, 126 ], [ "2026-10-10", 525, 452, 743, 129 ], [ "2026-10-17", 428, 469, 775, 144 ], [ "2026-10-24", 477, 483, 801, 237 ], [ "2026-10-31", 417, 493, 821, 294 ] ], "quarters": { "2024-12-31": { "signed": 4205, "weeks": 13, "source": "tracker, year-earlier column" }, "2025-03-31": { "signed": 3625, "weeks": 13, "source": "tracker, year-earlier column" }, "2025-06-30": { "signed": 1368, "weeks": 13, "source": "tracker, year-earlier column" }, "2025-09-30": { "signed": 1581, "weeks": 13, "source": "tracker, year-earlier column" }, "2025-12-31": { "signed": 2533, "weeks": 13, "source": "tracker" }, "2026-03-31": { "signed": 4924, "weeks": 13, "source": "tracker" }, "2026-06-30": { "signed": 7014, "weeks": 13, "source": "tracker" }, "2026-09-30": { "signed": 7048, "weeks": 13, "source": "tracker" } }, "contracts_vs_proj_series": [ [ "2026-08-08", 0.970059880239521 ], [ "2026-08-15", 0.8610616316351978 ], [ "2026-08-22", 0.6902265809942509 ], [ "2026-08-29", 0.46282051282051273 ], [ "2026-09-05", 0.28398058252427183 ], [ "2026-09-12", 0.08227848101265822 ], [ "2026-09-19", -0.03442622950819674 ], [ "2026-09-26", -0.1556248376201611 ], [ "2026-10-03", -0.18745405537858373 ], [ "2026-10-10", -0.16893293385572716 ], [ "2026-10-17", -0.22287453794303114 ], [ "2026-10-24", -0.21344607135491855 ], [ "2026-10-31", -0.26662696049235657 ] ], "coe_yoy_series": [ [ "2026-10-07", 0.35036496350364965 ], [ "2026-10-14", 0.4172661870503598 ], [ "2026-10-21", 0.45707656612529 ], [ "2026-10-28", 0.4395973154362416 ] ] }, "log": [ "EDGAR tags used:", " revenue_musd <- us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax", " gross_profit_musd <- us-gaap:GrossProfit", " net_income_musd <- us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss", " sbc_musd <- us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation", " fcf_musd <- us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment", " cash_musd <- us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue", " inventory_musd <- us-gaap:InventoryRealEstate", " equity_musd <- us-gaap:StockholdersEquity", " home_debt_musd <- us-gaap:LinesOfCreditCurrent + us-gaap:LongTermLineOfCredit", " convert_debt_musd <- us-gaap:ConvertibleDebtCurrent + us-gaap:ConvertibleDebtNoncurrent", " total_debt_musd <- us-gaap:LinesOfCreditCurrent + us-gaap:LongTermLineOfCredit + us-gaap:ConvertibleDebtCurrent + us-gaap:ConvertibleDebtNoncurrent", " shares_m <- us-gaap:CommonStockSharesOutstanding", " potential_dilution_m <- us-gaap:AntidilutiveSecuritiesExcludedFromComputationOfEarningsPerShareAmount", "Earnings releases (sec.gov 8-K exhibit 99.1):", "Potential shares by type (10-Q / 10-K anti-dilutive table):", "housing (Realtor.com): 12 of 12 markets, 2026-10; median days on market 64 (+0.9% YoY)", "mortgage rate 7.24% (week of 2026-10-29)", "float unavailable (HTTP Error 429: Too Many Requests); short interest shown against shares outstanding", "short interest 226.1M shares, 6.276492 days to cover (settlement 2026-10-15)", "accountable.opendoor.com: data as of 2026-10-31", "price sources that failed: Yahoo Finance: HTTP Error 429: Too Many Requests; Yahoo Finance: HTTP Error 429: Too Many Requests" ], "contracts_all": [ [ "2025-10-04", 125, 125, 125, 210 ], [ "2025-10-11", 125, 125, 125, 244 ], [ "2025-10-18", 132, 132, 132, 319 ], [ "2025-10-25", 140, 140, 140, 341 ], [ "2025-11-01", 236, 236, 236, 281 ], [ "2025-11-08", 294, 294, 294, 354 ], [ "2025-11-15", 270, 270, 270, 382 ], [ "2025-11-22", 245, 245, 245, 317 ], [ "2025-11-29", 190, 190, 190, 358 ], [ "2025-12-06", 184, 184, 184, 425 ], [ "2025-12-13", 237, 237, 237, 462 ], [ "2025-12-20", 192, 192, 192, 268 ], [ "2025-12-27", 163, 163, 163, 244 ], [ "2026-01-03", 146, 146, 146, 375 ], [ "2026-01-10", 260, 260, 260, 358 ], [ "2026-01-17", 266, 266, 266, 358 ], [ "2026-01-24", 287, 287, 287, 392 ], [ "2026-01-31", 303, 303, 303, 338 ], [ "2026-02-07", 242, 242, 242, 275 ], [ "2026-02-14", 537, 238, 372, 218 ], [ "2026-02-21", 449, 238, 372, 257 ], [ "2026-02-28", 442, 239, 373, 253 ], [ "2026-03-07", 390, 239, 374, 223 ], [ "2026-03-14", 447, 239, 374, 168 ], [ "2026-03-21", 610, 241, 376, 197 ], [ "2026-03-28", 545, 242, 377, 213 ], [ "2026-04-04", 658, 247, 386, 182 ], [ "2026-04-11", 594, 247, 386, 130 ], [ "2026-04-18", 465, 247, 387, 113 ], [ "2026-04-25", 424, 247, 386, 108 ], [ "2026-05-02", 511, 387, 525, 101 ], [ "2026-05-09", 582, 361, 500, 113 ], [ "2026-05-16", 655, 339, 475, 119 ], [ "2026-05-23", 542, 313, 452, 93 ], [ "2026-05-30", 429, 289, 428, 76 ], [ "2026-06-06", 564, 269, 410, 78 ], [ "2026-06-13", 538, 249, 392, 80 ], [ "2026-06-20", 529, 234, 380, 87 ], [ "2026-06-27", 523, 225, 375, 88 ], [ "2026-07-04", 551, 217, 367, 107 ], [ "2026-07-11", 568, 225, 377, 105 ], [ "2026-07-18", 635, 233, 389, 121 ], [ "2026-07-25", 671, 245, 405, 119 ], [ "2026-08-01", 716, 259, 423, 128 ], [ "2026-08-08", 610, 274, 444, 142 ], [ "2026-08-15", 615, 291, 466, 132 ], [ "2026-08-22", 558, 309, 491, 107 ], [ "2026-08-29", 499, 328, 517, 102 ], [ "2026-09-05", 444, 357, 537, 128 ], [ "2026-09-12", 380, 363, 574, 131 ], [ "2026-09-19", 444, 380, 604, 132 ], [ "2026-09-26", 357, 398, 636, 127 ], [ "2026-10-03", 477, 436, 690, 126 ], [ "2026-10-10", 525, 452, 743, 129 ], [ "2026-10-17", 428, 469, 775, 144 ], [ "2026-10-24", 477, 483, 801, 237 ], [ "2026-10-31", 417, 493, 821, 294 ], [ "2026-11-07", null, 500, 834, 268 ], [ "2026-11-14", null, 499, 839, 245 ], [ "2026-11-21", null, 501, 839, 190 ], [ "2026-11-28", null, 488, 826, 183 ], [ "2026-12-05", null, 461, 793, 238 ], [ "2026-12-12", null, 430, 756, 195 ], [ "2026-12-19", null, 397, 714, 162 ], [ "2026-12-26", null, 357, 661, 146 ], [ "2027-01-02", null, 437, 728, 260 ] ], "short_interest": { "settlement": "2026-10-15", "shares_short": 226050399.0, "avg_volume": 36015405.0, "days_to_cover": 6.276492, "previous": { "settlement": "2026-09-30", "shares_short": 230482512.0, "avg_volume": 30715863.0, "days_to_cover": 7.503696 }, "source": "Nasdaq (FINRA short interest)" }, "metric_history": [ { "run_date": "2026-11-04", "overall": "5.4", "rev_nowcast_yoy": "0.121882", "coe_q4_yoy": "0.439597", "contracts_qoq": "0.004847", "contrib_margin": "0.058", "contrib_trend": "0.014", "days_inventory": "170.353827", "gross_margin": "0.097395", "aged_inventory": "0.09", "net_margin_2q": "-0.208983", "adj_ebitda_m": "-0.00453", "ani_margin": "-0.033975", "coe_vs_guide": "-0.070211", "contracts_vs_proj": "-0.266627", "clearance": "1.115", "cash_vs_notes": "1.69323", "home_debt_ltv": "0.955014", "runway_q": "40.016667", "share_yoy": "0.199953", "sbc_pct": "0.134768", "dilution_live": "0.061035", "ps": "0.49505", "pb": "2.289825", "ret_1y": "-0.776062", "range_pos": "0.0", "vs_ma200": "-0.581763", "mortgage_rate": "0.0724", "mortgage_13w": "0.0058", "dom_yoy": "0.00865", "cuts_yoy": "-0.031234", "list_price_yoy": "-0.0259", "fallout": "0.252988" }, { "run_date": "2026-11-05", "overall": "5.38", "rev_nowcast_yoy": "0.121882", "coe_q4_yoy": "0.439597", "contracts_qoq": "0.004847", "contrib_margin": "0.058", "contrib_trend": "0.014", "days_inventory": "170.353827", "gross_margin": "0.097395", "aged_inventory": "0.09", "net_margin_2q": "-0.208983", "adj_ebitda_m": "-0.00453", "ani_margin": "-0.033975", "coe_vs_guide": "-0.070211", "contracts_vs_proj": "-0.266627", "clearance": "1.115", "cash_vs_notes": "1.69323", "home_debt_ltv": "0.955014", "runway_q": "40.016667", "share_yoy": "0.199953", "sbc_pct": "0.134768", "dilution_live": "0.064131", "ps": "0.563333", "pb": "2.605663", "ret_1y": "-0.73913", "range_pos": "0.031455", "vs_ma200": "-0.52154", "mortgage_rate": "0.0724", "mortgage_13w": "0.0058", "dom_yoy": "0.00865", "cuts_yoy": "-0.031234", "list_price_yoy": "-0.0259", "fallout": "0.252988" } ], "estimates_log": { "2026-09-30": { "estimates": [ { "date": "2026-11-04", "revenue": 1026.5, "homes": 2728, "rph_k": 376.3 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "revenue": 1026.5, "homes": 2728, "rph_k": 376.3 } ], "guide_min": 1098.0 } }, "change": { "overall": -0.020000000000000462, "grade_from": "C", "since": "2026-11-04T18:35", "method_changed": false, "pillars": { "Growth": 0.0, "Unit economics": 0.0, "Profitability": 0.0, "Execution": 0.0, "Balance sheet": 0.0, "Dilution": 0.0, "Valuation": -0.5, "Momentum": 0.1, "Housing market": 0.0 } }, "history": [ { "run_at": "2026-11-04T18:35", "price_date": "2026-11-03", "price": "1.74", "tracker_as_of": "2026-10-31", "latest_quarter": "2026-06-30", "overall": "5.4", "grade": "C", "Growth": "7.2", "Unit economics": "7.3", "Profitability": "3.9", 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